Obama Surges into Lead in National Poll
Posted on February 27, 2008 - Filed Under Clinton, Elections, Obama |
6 days from now, Ohio and Texas may prove decisive for Barack Obama. But in the meantime, he is finding surging momentum throughout the United States. A new poll finds, for the first time, that he leads Hillary Clinton among democrats nationwide. This is significant in that it confirms his support continues to grow as he eats more and more into her base.
For years Republicans have been clawing at an opportunity to defeat Hillary Clinton. They are somewhat perplexed that they may not even get a chance to face off against her. No one, absolutely no one, saw this tidal wave of support for Obama coming as the campaigns setup their operations last year. In fact, as Obama was considering a run, some aides warned him against it, fearing that a crushing and quick defeat by Clinton would hurt his long term prospects.
Clinton must win Ohio and win it big. Currently she is up 9 points there and needs to hold on to that margin. The problem may be that the primary doesn’t come soon enough. Over the last 6 days Obama has gained 6 points on her, and if he continues to surge, they could be statistically tied by next Tuesday. The Clinton campaign firewall in Texas has already broken. Clinton once held a large double digit lead there, and now they are tied.
It is also worth to note the pattern that has developed and continued through almost each primary election. Before the candidates arrive to campaign, Hillary Clinton is in the lead. Then as the vote nears, her lead fades. Why? Is is that her campaign message is disjointed? Is is that Obama is that good? Or could it be a little of both. The Clinton campaign did not see this election going past February 5th and see to have been caught off guard by the strong showing of Obama since then.
At last night’s debate, Clinton threw all but the kitchen sink at Obama, hoping that something, anything can slow down his momentum.  While it might be too late, if there’s one lesson in American politics that should not be forgotten its this - never count out a Clinton, especially one who is on the ropes. That tends to be exactly when they are at their best.
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