Are We Headed Towards an Election Day Landslide?
I know, I know the polls are really close and in four days from now this post could look very stupid. But I’m making it anyway. If you track the movement in swing states, it suggests that this election, while close today, it’s breaking, and breaking at strong levels for Obama.
Consider this - Missouri, Virginia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all showing Obama with the lead or tied for it. This should not be the case. The danger for the McCain campaign is that Obama has enlarged the map of states in play. The GOP is going to have to spend money to defend traditionally solid states like North Carolina and Virgina. Plus, Obama is only 1 point behind in Indiana, and is gaining ground in Kentucky, yes Kentucky.
I do not believe Obama will win all the above-mentioned states. But, he doesn’t have to in order to win. If he does carry Ohio and Pennsylvania, plus Missouri or Florida, how is McCain going to win? It would be almost impossible.
Election Day is still over a month away and a lot can happen in that time frame. Over the last month voters have started to make up their minds and the trend polling suggests they are breaking for Obama. So with all this talk about how close the election really is, could most reporters be missing the fact that this election, if held today, wouldn’t even be close. In fact, it would be a landslide.
So it reasons to conclude if Obama and Biden perform well at the debates and they continue to spend money at record levels, we could be looking at a total blowout come November 4th.
Sphere: Related Content
3 Responses to “Are We Headed Towards an Election Day Landslide?”
Yes! Finally, i thought this as well. The media keeps saying ‘oh its so close, no one knows who is going to win’ but look at all these GOP states in play. Unless people are racist, or have a total sudden change of heart (against a change of heart), Obama will win. Palin is now dragging McCain down. At first it was great but she is now a drag on the ticket. The smart conservatives in this country have already acknowledged that. She is Dan Q 2.
Comment made on October 1st, 2008 at 9:55 pmI did a posts on this today on Papamoka and then I thought about the polling scenario. Cell phones! How many of the people you know do no longer have hard wired home phones that are listed in the Yellow Pages? Those millions of families and voters not in any directory are not part of the polling process and ergo the polls looking close.
Great post by the way!
Comment made on October 1st, 2008 at 10:16 pmThe Gallup polls show Obama with only a 4 point lead as opposed to an 8 point lead a few days ago. The USA Today shows a much larger spread if you look at the Electorial College. I definitely don’t think it is time to relax. The debates will mean everything.
Comment made on October 2nd, 2008 at 11:05 amLeave a Comment